The SPOP

Playoff Record: 5-5

Let’s get a few things out of the way before we get into this so it’s clear that objectivity will reign supreme.

Fact:  I live in Massachusetts and am a huge Patriots fan.  It would mean a great deal to me if they won.

Fact:  I have picked against the Patriots in 11 of their 18 games this season.

My Opinion:  The Giants are the better team.

That being said…

Patriots -3 (2.5 @ some books) vs. NY Giants

People say that the Giants are the hottest team in football.  Not true.  The Patriots are.  They have won ten in a row since losing a heartbreaker to guess who…the Giants back in November.  Meanwhile, New York was croaked by Rex Grossman and the Redskins at home in week 15.

People say the Giants have beaten superior teams.  Record-wise, that is true.  But let’s look exactly at what they have done during their run.  They beat the Cowboys and the Jets, two underachieving teams in the midst of their seasons being flushed down the toilet.  They basically shut out a fraudulent Falcons team at home.  Then they beat the Packers which was, at first glance, a shock.  However, in order to beat them they needed a halftime Hail Mary conversion and a 66 yard Nicks catch-and-run touchdown where Packer defenders bumbled all around him and did everything but tackle. And let’s not forget that most of the Packers’ key starters hadn’t played a game in three whole weeks.  There was a little bit of rust in play.  We’ll get to the 49ers game in a bit.

People say the Patriots haven’t beaten a team with a winning record all year before last weekend.  This is true, but the key is that they laid no eggs in the process which the Giants are extremely prone to do (Washington, Seattle, Vince Young’s Eagles, and Washington again).  The Patriots lost to two good teams (Pittsburgh and these Giants) by one score each in the middle of the season while they were putting together a patchwork defense of waiver pickups, wide receivers, and undrafted free agents.  They also lost to Buffalo after racking up a 21-0 lead and then falling asleep.  That is the extent of their blemishes this season.  It’s not their fault that they had to play “bad teams”.  They were supposed to beat them and they did.

People say the Patriots shouldn’t even be here because they were lucky and shouldn’t have won last week.  Well guess what?  The Giants were also lucky and shouldn’t have won last week.  Ted Ginn was out so the Giants ended up on the good side of two special teams turnovers at critical times in the game.  Prior to the second one they had the ball twice in overtime and couldn’t score.  Without a turnover, that game might still be going on now.

People say that the Patriots’ defense sucks.  A really crappy defense probably lets up 30 points regularly, right?  New England has only allowed 30 once, 27 once, and nobody else has scored more than 25 against them all season.  These Patriots can put up four touchdowns and a field goal if they need to.

People say that the Giants have already beaten the Patriots once this year.  What they don’t tell you is that New England had the game in hand with seconds to go when Sergio Brown interfered with Victor Cruz on the goal line and gave New York a fresh set of downs to take the game.  Mr. Brown does not play so much since then.  A wide receiver took over his spot until Patrick Chung came back from injury.

People say that the Giants will maul Tom Brady like they did four years ago.  First of all, in the game they played this season Brady was sacked twice and hit three times.  That means he was touched basically once per quarter.  That ain’t so scary considering in their first Superbowl he was sacked five times and reset the counter for how many times he was knocked to the ground.  Secondly, New England’s offensive line is strong now that they have added rookie Nate Solder and Sebatian Vollmer has come back from injury.  Brady will get rid of the ball quickly now that he doesn’t have to wait for Randy Moss to run the length of the field.  He’ll stay clean.

People say that emotions and intangibles will play no part in this game.  They say that X’s and O’s and matchups will determine the outcome.  The Giants hold the edge at nearly every position on the field except for tight end and (maybe?) quarterback.  But this Patriots team needs to win this game.  Eli, these receivers, and even Tom Coughlin will be around for a long time.  Brady is on the back 9 of his career.  He’s not just yet calling ahead to the clubhouse to order a hot dog from the 18th tee, but he’s probably on the final par five of the course.  The sun is creeping behind the trees and his wife is calling his cell phone asking him when he’ll be home while his buddies roll their eyes.  “Almost done,” he’ll say, maybe stretching the truth a bit so she’ll leave him alone.  Maybe not.  Time will tell.  He and Belichick want two more rings so they can be untouchable.  They know they lucked out this year with injuries around the league and their first playoff opponent.  They can steal this one.  They want payback for the one that got away.  And they have the memory of their beloved owner’s even more beloved wife to honor.

People say none of that matters.

Those people haven’t seen the look in the veteran Patriots’ eyes lately.

 

 

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Playoffs:  3-5  AFC: 0-4 NFC:  3-1

4- Teams left

3- Great defenses

2- Great offenses

1 – Blogger with no clue how either game will turn out.

But I’ll give it a shot.  Here we go.

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Baltimore @ New England:  So many reasons to pick each team.  Let’s go through them.

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Reasons to pick Baltimore

• Ray Rice is an animal, both rushing and receiving, and has had success against New England.
• In the Joe Flacco era these games have been incredibly close.  The only one that wasn’t close was when Baltimore blew out the Patriots in the playoffs on the same field.
• Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata.
• Emotions.  Baltimore has confidence; they’ve won here in the playoffs before.  They also have desperation; this defensive group may not be here again together.
• The Patriots played two winning teams all year (NY Giants & Pittsburgh) and lost to both.  The rest of their schedule was filled to the brim with cupcakes and they lost to one of them too (Buffalo).
• New England’s most effective rusher in the playoffs is a tight end.

Reasons to pick the Patriots

• Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are leaps and bounds ahead of Flacco and Harbaugh.
• Welker, Gronkowski, and Hernandez did not play in the playoff game that Baltimore won.
• Welker, Gronkowski, and Hernandez are ridiculous.
• The game is in Foxboro where they have only lost three times in the last 41 home games.
• The Patriots are averaging 32 points per game at home this season.  The Ravens can’t score that many points.
• The Ravens have only faced one offensive minded quarterback (Rivers) since November 6th (Roethlisberger, if you count him) and they got lit up by him.

I don’t think the Ravens can match touchdowns with the Patriots, obviously.  But I do think that they will hit hard, whether it be Brady, Welker, or one of the tight ends.  They’ll do their thing and try to rough people up and intimidate, but the Patriots will pull out a close one.  Take Baltimore and the 7 points, but expect New England to head to Indy.

 

NY Giants @ San Francisco:   Alex Smith out dueled the best statistical quarterback in the history of the NFL last week and Vernon Davis lived up to his expectations for one game.  Nobody saw that coming.  But the Giants will.  Up above I mentioned the number of great offenses and great defenses left in the playoffs.  Well the Giants are the only team with both.  The pass rush is outstanding and the corners can cover.  Eli Manning can move the ball effortlessly and has big play receivers to go to.  Let there be no mistake, San Francisco’s defense is nasty and there will be some jarring hits on those receivers, but it won’t be enough to completely derail the train.  Take the 2.5 points and buckle up for a Giants/Patriots Superbowl rematch.

 

Playoffs:  2-2  AFC: 0-2  NFC:  2-0

New Orleans -3.5 @ San Francisco: The 49ers are the popular pick because they get to host the Saints outdoors.  I say that an eight of an inch of grass is not enough to slow down the New Orleans offense and their record setting quarterback.  Sure, the Saints won’t hit 40 points like they do in the dome, but they’ll hit enough big plays to Graham, wide receivers, and Sproles to keep a safe distance from Alex Smith and the San Francisco slow churning offense.   New Orleans 27, San Francisco 20.

Denver +14 @ New England:  Yes, the Patriots routed Denver in Denver a month ago.  But the Broncos turned the ball over three times and let up four sacks.  Those things are unlikely to happen again no matter the venue.  In that game Tebow also ran the ball for two touchdowns and close to one hundred yards while throwing for almost two hundred.  Well as we all found out last week, he can kind of throw the ball too now that he finally has his owner’s blessing to turn it loose and has nothing to lose but the game he shouldn’t even be in.  The Patriots defense is still terrible and will let up chunks on the ground and through the air.  Patriots 38, Broncos 27.

Houston @ Baltimore -8: It was a nice story in Houston this year, succeeding with Schaub in the first half of the season and staying the course with Yates for the second half.  But the ride will come to a bruising end Sunday afternoon.  Baltimore’s defense is just all around too good to let Yates or Foster do much of anything and Flacco, Rice, and Smith will take care of business on the other side of the ball.  I like the Texans and I really hope the outcome is less embarrassing than my prediction, but I doubt it.  Baltimore 30, Houston 10.

NY Giants +8 @ Green Bay:  Game of the week.  Maybe even the game of the playoffs, which is why the spread surprises me.  Vegas is giving the Packers a lot of credit considering that the Giants already won a playoff game there recently and almost beat the same Packers team this year in New York.  I’ve been riding the Giants since they rediscovered their pass rush.  Add that to their explosive and balanced offense and it should make for a fun, close game.   NY Giants 31, Green Bay 30.

Last Week: 5-10-1  Overall: 123-121-5  Best Bets: 24-22-3 Monday Night: 10-7  Against Cincy: 5-10-1

 Cincinnati +3 @ Houston:  The worst part about this game is that it will result in one of these teams advancing in the playoffs.  Andy Dalton can’t pass against good defenses and T.J. Yates can’t pass.  I’ll be taking the under in this one.  As far as the actual game goes, I’ll let Bill Belichick decide for me.  Yesterday the Patriots signed WR Britt Davis to the practice squad.  Mr. Davis is 6’3″, 205.  A.J. Green is 6’4″, 207.   If Bill’s picking the Bengals, so am I.

Detroit @ New Orleans -9.5:  After watching a 4:30 game where there will be about 20 points scored, we get to watch this one where 80 points may be scored.  This same game was played five weeks ago in the same dome with the Saints prevailing by 14.  I don’t see any reason to expect anything different.  The Saints are on fire.  Here are some stats for you. They have won 8 in a row.  They have scored 287 points during that streak, including breaking 40 points in half of those games.  They have won by an average of 24 points per game in their last 4 home games, including the one against Detroit.    If that doesn’t sell you on the Saints, check out this stat for the Lions.  Fact:  They have not beaten a team with a winning record all year.  Go ahead and check.  I couldn’t believe it when I saw it either.  And when they lose, they lose by an average of 11 points.  Put that together with them not being able to beat Green Bay’s backups last week in a game they had to have and this is an easy pick.

Atlanta @ NY Giants -3:  The Falcons are almost in the same boat as the Lions.  Of their ten wins only two of them came against winning teams.  They spent the rest of their season, especially the second half, beating up on chumps.  They have only won two games outdoors and none of them were in cold weather.  In fact, they haven’t played a cold weather game in over a year.  Well New Jersey is cold in January and the Giants are a very hot team right now.  They’re doing the right things at the right time and have won three very big games toward the end of the year.  There will be a lot of points in this one, but the home team takes it in the end by at least a touchdown.

Pittsburgh -8 @ Denver:  The Tebow bandwagon is pretty empty these days and for good reason.  In a two hour span last week when his team’s playoff status was uncertain, he had three whole quarters of football to score a single touchdown.  And he couldn’t do it.  The Broncos lost their third game in a row and backed into the playoffs.  The good news is that they’ll all have a nice short ride home after the game.  I don’t care if Roethlisberger is hurt or that Mendenhall and Clark are out.  Those things will matter in the next round, but not Sunday.   The Steelers defense will go into shutdown mode and may not let up any points at all.  I’m setting the over/under for James Harrison concussions caused at 1.5.

Last Week: 8-8  Overall: 118-111-4  Best Bets: 23-20-3  Monday Night: 10-7  Against Cincy: 4-10-1

This week we’re gonna group by importance and effort of the teams with not too much, if any, commentary for the duds.

Both Teams fighting to get into the playoffs or for seeding

Baltimore -2 @ Cincinnati:  I thought the Bengals stunk to start the year.  I was wrong.  But Baltimore needs a strong road win to end the year for their confidence and to lock up a first round bye.  Should be a physical game with the nastier team coming out on top.

Dallas @ NY Giants -3:  Game of the week, obviously.  Win and you’re in.  I’ve been on the Cowboys all year and I really hope they win, but I just don’t see them doing it in New Jersey in the cold.  They say Romo is ok, but his hand looked awful last week and it has to be bothering him.  The Giants have a solid defense centered around their pass rush and Manning is slinging the ball around like his brother.  It will be an entertaining game, but the Giants will be playing next weekend.

One team fighting to make the playoffs or for seeding.  One team playing for nothing.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta -10.5 :  Tempting to pick the Bucs with this many points because Atlanta hasn’t impressed anybody over the last month, but Tampa is just that bad.  They’ve lost nine in a row and are very seldom in a close game.  This one’s in the Georgia Dome and the Falcons do not want to go back to New Orleans again next week.  They can probably avoid that with a win and will be looking to put the game away early by as big of a margin as they can.

San Francisco -10.5 @ St. Louis :  This should be easy for several reasons.  First of all the 49ers are really good and the Rams are…not.  Second, the 49ers need to win to assure themselves the 2 seed and a bye.  Third, the Rams have no reason to lay it all out because they have a shot at the first pick in the draft and everybody knows that their coach is history as of next week.  This will be a train wreck.

Detroit -4 @ Green Bay:  There’s no way Aaron Rodgers plays the whole game.  The Packers have the top seed wrapped up and have already lost their chance at a perfect season.  The Lions, like Atlanta, are fighting to avoid the Saints in the wild card round and if they look anything like they did last week against San Diego, they should take care of business against Green Bay’s backups.

Carolina +8 @ New Orleans:  The Saints have plenty to play for since San Francisco plays at the same time.  They would really like the bye next week.  Unfortunately the scoreboard will display a 49ers rout by halftime and New Orleans will start pulling some key players.  Sean Peyton will have Brees padding his record and warding off Tom Brady for the first half, but Cam Newton can match points against that defense.  It will be fun to watch.

Tennessee -2 @ Houston: T.J. Yates has been exposed for what we all thought he was…not good.  The Texans have nothing to play for with the 3 seed in their pocket while the Titans will give everything they have to make their slim playoff chances a little more likely.

Pittsburgh -6.5 @ Cleveland:  This one seems too easy and very suspicious, but I’m still laying the points.  Big Ben will be in there and the Steelers still have an outside shot at the top seed in the AFC.  These two teams just played two weeks ago with a 14-3 win by Pittsburgh.  The Steelers also just shut out a similar punchless team last week (Rams) and should have no problem wiping the floor with the Browns in their playoff tuneup.

NY Jets +3 @ Miami:  Miami has been fighting hard since mid-season, but losing Reggie Bush will hurt them more than people think.  Defenses are actually afraid of him again, which has been leaving Marshall and Hartline open for big plays.  Without Reggie they’re a different team.  Rex Ryan will have his guys ready to roll and do their part to get into the playoffs. It probably won’t be enough, but they’ll do their job in this one.

Buffalo +10.5 @ New England:  The Bills already beat the Patriots and their horrible defense once this year.  After blowing the season, they showed that they still have some firepower last week when they put up 40 on the Broncos.  The Patriots lock up the top seed with a win and they will get it.  But it will be down to the last minute.

San Diego +3 @ Oakland: This is an F.U. game for the Chargers.  They were embarrassed last week and for most of the season for that matter.  They can score in bunches and will look to knock a division rival out of the playoff race just for fun.

Kansas City @ Denver -3:  It’s gut check time for Tebow.  The Broncos just got blown out two weeks in a row and need to prove that their winning streak was no fluke.  I think they’re overrated, but they should be able to beat the Chiefs at home and earn the right to get smoked by Pittsburgh next week.

Neither team has anything to play for

Washington @ Philadelphia -8.5:  Eagles fight til the end just to make sure Andy Reid is their coach next year.

Chicago @ Minnesota -1.5

Seattle +3 @ Arizona

The Andrew Luck Bowl

Indianapolis +3.5 @ Jacksonville :  I’ll be honest. I flipped a coin.  Only the Colts players know how hard they’ll try or what they’re thinking.  If they lose, they’ll make sure they lose by three just to show people that they could have won if they wanted to.

Best Bets:  Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Baltimore

 

 

Last Week: 8-7  Overall: 110-103  Best Bets: 22-18-3 Monday Night: 9-7  Against Cincy: 4-9-1

Houston -7 @ Indianapolis

The Colts got their win to avoid the imperfect season and have no reason to play hard and screw up their draft position.  Even if they wanted to, I’m not so sure they’d have a chance anyway.  Houston has a top defense and T.J. Yates’ poor performance last week surely brought this down to a reasonable 7.  He should rebound and sew up a needed win for the Texans’ playoff seeding.

Oakland +2.5 @ Kansas City

The Raiders finally have a winnable game after a rough December stretch.  They were shut out last time against the Chiefs in Carson Palmer’s first start as a Raider.  Since then, Matt Cassell has been lost for the year and his coach has been fired.  Kansas City had their Superbowl last week against the Packers and will be drained for this one.

Denver -3 @ Buffalo

Tebow gets the Broncos back on track here against a horrendous Bills team.  The Chosen One did get smoked by Tom Brady last week, but most of it wasn’t his fault.  He should manage the game for an easy win here.

Jacksonville +7.5 @ Tennessee

Can’t make up my mind on what either of these teams are at this point.  But I know not to pick the team that just lost to the Colts to win by more than a touchdown.

Arizona +4 @ Cincinnati

The Bengals can’t beat good teams, which the Cardinals just might be.

Miami +9.5 @ New England

There’s been a lot of talk around New England that the number one seed is wrapped up.  Very dangerous considering the Dolphins have won five out of seven, only losing to a couple of NFC East teams.

Cleveland @ Baltimore -12.5

There is no line too high for this game.  The Ravens will be out for blood at home after getting trounced on NBC last Sunday night.

NY Giants -3 @ NY Jets

The Giants have to travel all the way to the other side of the hallway for this one.  They’ll overcome that factor and beat the Jets, who still can’t beat good teams.

Minnesota @ Washington -6.5

Peterson should be back and play more than he did last week, but I think the Ponder/Harvin Show comes to an end outdoors.  The Redskins may be a bit better than we all thought after what they did to the Giants last week.

Tampa Bay @ Carolina -7.5

The way the Bucs are playing, they couldn’t keep up with a Texas high school team.  Cam Newton locks up Rookie of the Year in this one with some big numbers.

St. Louis +16 @ Pittsburgh

The line is just too high to take the Steelers with a non-sex offender starting at quarterback.

San Diego +2.5 @ Detroit

Nobody is hotter than the Chargers these days.  Detroit lucked out with a close win against the Raiders last week, but they have shown that they are going downhill over the past month.  The Lions defense will look invisible to Phillip Rivers after facing Baltimore last week.

San Francisco -2.5 @ Seattle

Interesting little game we have here.  The Seahawks have won five out of six and Marshawn Lynch might be getting some MVP attention.  But everybody knows the stat by now.  The 49ers haven’t let up a rushing touchdown all year.  That takes away Seattle’s best weapon and should put this game well out of reach.

Philadelphia +1.5 @ Dallas

Dallas really should win this game, but they should also have beaten the Giants when they came to town a few weeks ago. Instead they got clipped in a game they had to have to get some separation in the division.  Philly is hot lately and something just tells me that there will be some big plays from Vick to keep the Eagles’ hopes alive.

Chicago @ Green Bay -13

It’s tempting to pick Chicago because the Packers lost their shot at a perfect season last week and may be resting some players.  But the Bears will be rolling out their third quarterback of the year and Green Bay technically doesn’t have the number one seed in their pocket yet.  They’ll offer up the full arsenal one more time on Christmas.

Atlanta @ New Orleans -6.5

The Falcons ran away with things last week in prime time.  But the Saint’s ain’t the Jaguars.  This should be a very entertaining game for the Monday Night Football finale and many fantasy championships will be decided in this one, but the Saints will pull away in the end.

 

Best Bets:  NY Giants, Baltimore, San Diego

 

 

Last Week: 7-9  Overall: 102-96  Best Bets: 21-16-3  Monday Night: 8-7  Against Cincy: 4-8-1

Dallas -7 @ Tampa Bay

The Cowboys have too much talent and too much on the line to blow this game.  I don’t feel good about it though.  How could you after their last two games?  Now they travel on a short week to the East Coast to play outside where they are always sketchy.  Nevertheless, if the lose this game their playoff chances go down to next to nothing and they should play accordingly and soundly beat the fading Bucs.

Washington @ NY Giants -6.5

The Redskins should be gassed after playing a ping pong game on offense and defense last week against the Patriots.  Now they get to visit the Giants, who are all of a sudden in control of the NFC East.  Eli Manning is playing out of his mind and should guide the home team to an easy win.

New Orleans @ Minnesota +6.5

Even if Joe Webb starts I think that the Vikings make a game of this.  Adrian Peterson should be in the backfield and that makes things a whole lot easier for everybody in purple.  The Saints are obviously a legit contender, but Minnesota is always a tough place to play and Jared Allen will be all over Brees.

Seattle +3.5 @ Chicago

Caleb Hanie and Marion Barber are not getting it done.  Tavaris Jackson and Marshawn Lynch are.

Green Bay @ Kansas City +13.5

Word is that Kyle Orton is back in for his new team.  He is a tremendous upgrade at the quarterback position for the Chiefs as Tyler Palko has proven to be a joke.  Everybody will be gunning to take down the Packers for the short remainder of the season and Arrowhead will be a very tough destination for them.  In addition to that, there are too many scenarios for Green Bay to not go all out here.  They may rest Rodgers and other key players in the second half.  They may take the foot off the gas early and allow KC to harmlessly crawl back to ten points if it’s a blowout.  They also may simplify the playbook to save the good stuff for the playoffs.   Put all those together and it’s tough to see the Packers doing what they did to Oakland last week.

Miami @ Buffalo +1.5

The Bills will face either a concussed Matt Moore or old pal J.P. Losman Sunday.  Yikes.  The Dolphins typically struggle up north when the temperature drops and the Buffalo forecast calls for 30 degrees and light snow.

Carolina +6 @ Houston

Even though he has not let anybody down yet, I still just don’t trust T.J. Yates to put up points.  And that’s what he’ll have to do when the Panthers roll in.  Cam Newton continues to impress with his arm and his legs and will deal the AFC’s #1 seed a long overdue loss.

Tennessee @ Indianapolis +6.5

Just a hunch.  The Colts “hung in” on the road against Baltimore, only losing by 14.  Now they get a home division game against an opponent that lost a heartbreaker last week.  It’s gotta happen sometime, right?

Cincinnati @ St. Louis +6.5

One of the few times I’ve picked against the Bengals and not felt good about it.

Detroit +1 @ Oakland

The Lions need this game bad.  There are too many teams competing for NFC wild cards right now and they have to close the season out against San Diego and Green Bay after this one.  Carson Palmer has been a disappointment and might not last long with Suh returning from his suspension.

New England @ Denver +7.5 straight up

Don’t ask me how it’s gonna happen.  It’s just gonna happen.

NY Jets @ Philadelphia -3

 

The Jets win streak is smoke and mirrors.  They’ve beaten the Bills, Redskins, and Chiefs.  None of those teams are on the same talent level or have the speed of the Eagles.  This one might knock the Jets out of the playoffs.

Cleveland @ Arizona -6.5

The Cardinals are rolling along winning games and have an underrated defense that may pitch a shutout against the Browns.

Baltimore -2.5 @ San Diego

If Houston loses earlier in the day, look for the Ravens to be pumped up more than usual.  Chances are Pittsburgh will lose Monday night (see next game), which means this win against the Chargers will lock them into a first round bye and a second round home game, which Joe Flacco hasn’t played in.  Ever.

Pittsburgh @ San Francisco -2.5

I don’t like the chances of a gimpy Roethlisberger or a healthy Charlie Batch or a healthy Dennis Dixon going cross country and beating a top five team with a top two defense.

Best Bets:  Buffalo, Philadelphia, Arizona

 

 

Last Week: 9-6 Overall: 95-87-4  Best Bets: 19-15-3  Monday Night: 7-7  Against Cincy: 3-8-1

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh -14

The Browns have no offense right now and are in no position to snap out of it on a cold Pittsburgh night.

Indianapolis @ Baltimore -16.5

 

This final score will look a lot like the end of the third quarter of the Pats/Colts game last week before Bill Belichick joked around and put his offensive players on defense just to see what would happen.  Ravens: 30-3.

Houston +3 @ Cincinnati

The Bengals may be who I thought they were.

Oakland +11 @ Green Bay

The Raiders are hurt, but they’re just nasty enough to hang around and scare the undefeated Packers.  Even one less key injury for Oakland and I might have even picked the straight up upset.

Kansas City +10.5 @ NY Jets

The Jets have feasted on some bad teams during their current win streak, but Sanchez still makes some sketchy decisions and the Chiefs defense can come up with some big plays.

Minnesota +10 @ Detroit

If Christian Ponder and Toby Gerhart can put up 32 points on the Broncos defense, they should be able to hand around in Motown as well.  The Lions, by the way, also officially suck again after losing their last five out of seven.

New Orleans -3.5 @ Tennessee

The Titans are getting too much respect after beating Buffalo, Tampa Bay, and Carolina in the previous four weeks.  The will be a wake up call.

Philadelphia +3 @ Miami

This is one of those games where the Eagles showcase just how talented they can be.  The Dolphins have been playing great, but this is just a case of being outclassed.

New England -8 @ Washington

Without Fred Davis, there will be very little the Redskins can do to expose New England’s poor secondary.  They’ll score for sure, but not nearly enough to keep up with Brady.

Atlanta @ Carolina +3

The Falcons are back to being what they were to start the season…not good.  Especially against the spread.  They failed to cover reasonable spreads two weeks in a row against inferior teams and then followed that up by losing straight up to T.J. Yates and the Houston Texans.

Tampa Bay @ Jacksonville +2

This is a gross game, but somebody’s gotta win.  I’ll take the team with a healthy quarterback and a defense that can step up when they feel like it.  The Jags did indeed play on Monday night, but that was a home game, as is this one.  No travel means, no problem.

San Francisco -3.5 @ Arizona

Since mid-September, it’s taken a monster effort from the Baltimore Ravens defense to put a cork in the 49ers.  The Cardinals don’t have the offense or defense to match what happened on Thanksgiving.

Chicago @ Denver -3.5

No Cutler.  No Forte.  Road game.  High elevation.  Tebow.  Not a good week to be a Bear.

Buffalo @ San Diego -7

The Bills have officially went in the tank again and while the Chargers are probably out of the playoff race, Rivers looks like he’s ready to sling it around a little bit at the end of the year.  Word is he has himself in his fantasy league and it’s playoff time.

NY Giants @ Dallas -3.5

These games are always high scoring and entertaining.  The Cowboys should be outraged after losing to the Cardinals last week and they know they only need to win one of these Giants games to clinch the division and their best shot to do it is as home in prime time.

St. Louis @ Seattle -4.5

Nobody ever wants to play in Seattle and Marshawn Lynch could run through a brick wall right now.  He ain’t pretty to look at, but he’s ballin’ right now.

Best Bets:  New Orleans, Patriots, Seahawks

 

 

 

Last Week: 9-7  Overall: 86-81-4  Best Bets: 18-13-3 Monday Night: 6-7  Against Cincy: 2-8-2

Philadelphia -3 @ Seattle

Vince Young and LeSean McCoy will squeak one out in the battle of the birds.  Tavaris Jackson is not going to enjoy throwing against that secondary.

Tennessee @ Buffalo -1.5

The Bills finally showed some of their early season form last week against the Jets.  A little home cooking and a little more C.J. Spiller should mean a win against the Titans who switch quarterbacks every two quarters.

Kansas City +7 @ Chicago

What an awful game.  If the Chiefs are dumb enough to roll out Tyler Palko in Chicago, then they will get rocked and they will deserve it.  They claimed Orton.  They’re paying Orton.  Play him.  I think they will and he will outperform fellow backup Caleb Hanie.

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh -6.5

This line is an overreaction from the poor performance by the Steelers on Sunday night.  They beat the Bengals on the road by seven a few weeks ago.  They should mop the floor with them at home, with or without The Hairdo.

Baltimore -6.5 @ Cleveland

Really?  Clean out your pockets and your piggy banks.

NY Jets -3 @ Washington

The Jets play their best when they have their backs against the wall.  And that they do.  The Skins had a nice rare win last week against the Seahawks, but best of luck to them moving the ball against Rex Ryan’s defense.

Atlanta -2.5 @ Houston

The 1:00PM showing of  “T.J. Yates: Nobody’s Fool” will be a poorly reviewed comedy that people walk out on halfway through.

Carolina +3 @ Tampa Bay

The Bucs have shown nothing during their five game losing streak.  Make it six.

Detroit @ New Orleans -9

Who dat wanna play those Saints right now?  Nobody.  They look just like the Packers, except with a running game.  And the Packers just wasted the Lions in Detroit.

Denver +1.5 @ Minnesota

I believe.

St. Louis @ San Francisco -13

The 49ers should be able to stop the Rams offense on just about every possession.  If they score 20, they should cover.

Dallas -4.5 @ Arizona

Don’t kick it to Devin He….I mean…Patrick Peterson.  If the Cowboys follow that rule, this will be a rout.

Green Bay -6.5 @ NY Giants

The Giants impossible second half schedule continues.  They just let up 49 to the Saints and couldn’t come close to keeping up.  I predict a lot of the same here.

Indianapolis @ New England -20

 

I would have picked the Colts if the kept Curtis Painter as the QB.  Really.

San Diego -3 @ Jacksonville

My Mama always said…”Don’t bet on Blaine Gabbert.”

 

Best Bets:  Atlanta, Dallas, Baltimore